NHL · resolved market
DEL: Iserlohn Roosters vs. ERC Ingolstadt
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x794031bda597ccbb399ad9aff0bb819480eb640c2ccfbf8cd625bd49439d679b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iserlohn Roostersof Iserlohn Roosters, ERC Ingolstadt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,542 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 257.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Iserlohn Roosters | 40c | 199.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed ERC Ingolstadt | 58c | 121.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 114.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Iserlohn Roosters | 41c | 104.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Iserlohn Roosters | 42c | 84.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Iserlohn Roosters | 39c | 58.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Iserlohn Roosters | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a5ffbacked Iserlohn Roosters | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed ERC Ingolstadt | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Iserlohn Roosters | 78c | 35.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 199 | 64.3%128 W · 71 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Iserlohn Roosters | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Iserlohn Roosters | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iserlohn Roosters | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed ERC Ingolstadt | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed ERC Ingolstadt | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed ERC Ingolstadt | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Iserlohn Roosters | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.