Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796a7fd08c04f6293c90c0d29f68469e2cc97de0b0bdafcee0c64cfbbefd1bbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Amaru Gaming | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime | 75c | 3,985$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.03 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Amaru Gaming | 10c | 3,961$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.4 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Amaru Gaming | 21c | 2,474$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.01 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Amaru Gaming | 25c | 1,836$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Amaru Gaming | 3c | 1,744$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 1,244$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.16 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Amaru Gaming | 20c | 1,218$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Amaru Gaming | 22c | 1,127$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.58 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked PlayTime | 74c | 1,107$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.88 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Amaru Gaming | 24c | 1,047$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.98 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Amaru Gaming | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Amaru Gaming | 17c | 830.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Amaru Gaming | 18c | 672.43$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked PlayTime | 79c | 611.45$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Amaru Gaming | 20c | 430.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Amaru Gaming | 15c | 420.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Amaru Gaming | 21c | 410.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Amaru Gaming | 17c | 373.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…67babacked Amaru Gaming | 4c | 260$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Amaru Gaming | 9c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked PlayTime | 74c | 236.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Amaru Gaming | 14c | 228.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Amaru Gaming | 24c | 216.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Amaru Gaming | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Amaru Gaming | 18c | 191.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Amaru Gaming | 12c | 147$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Amaru Gaming | 12c | 139.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Amaru Gaming | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Amaru Gaming | 12c | 131.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed PlayTime | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Amaru Gaming | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Amaru Gaming | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Amaru Gaming | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Amaru Gaming | 18c | 98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed Amaru Gaming | 31c | 97.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 40.9%65 W · 94 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Amaru Gaming | 25c | 87.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Amaru Gaming | 19c | 84.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed PlayTime | 67c | 66.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed PlayTime | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed PlayTime | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed PlayTime | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked PlayTime | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5)PlayTime won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.