TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
PlayTimeof PlayTime, Amaru Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a95…343bbacked Amaru Gaming10c3,000$300 inLost-$30069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Amaru Gaming8c1,883$152 inLost-$152.216539.4%65 W · 100 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Amaru Gaming12c1,543$179 inLost-$1795836.2%21 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Amaru Gaming17c1,502$257 inLost-$257.2220827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Amaru Gaming11c1,419$154 inLost-$153.9729243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Amaru Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Amaru Gaming5c751.48$37 inLost-$37.1320740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Amaru Gaming4c743.43$30 inLost-$29.7416232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5f…c343backed Amaru Gaming12c525$63 inLost-$63714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Amaru Gaming12c370.71$45 inLost-$4548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Amaru Gaming11c360.95$40 inLost-$40.2858943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Amaru Gaming12c316.7$37 inLost-$37.2523736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3868…7ecfbacked Amaru Gaming10c268.8$27 inLost-$26.883834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Amaru Gaming6c250.99$16 inLost-$15.9578516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Amaru Gaming11c241.23$25 inLost-$25.3421540.9%88 W · 127 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Amaru Gaming10c238.27$24 inLost-$23.7916839.9%67 W · 101 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Amaru Gaming12c191.67$23 inLost-$2322538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Amaru Gaming11c190.15$20 inLost-$20.1558746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Amaru Gaming13c184$24 inLost-$24.0464547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Amaru Gaming10c183$18 inLost-$18.31,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Amaru Gaming18c152.48$27 inLost-$271241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Amaru Gaming11c102.34$12 inLost-$11.6656945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PlayTime76c72.58$55 inWon+$17.4266545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed PlayTime78c34.12$27 inWon+$7.5135430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.