TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
PlayTimeof PlayTime, Amaru Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,865 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08cc…67babacked Amaru Gaming1c14,560$215 inLost-$215.270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Amaru Gaming15c2,143$315 inLost-$315.4288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8224…7384backed Amaru Gaming6c1,250$75 inLost-$751442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Amaru Gaming16c1,000$160 inLost-$16029243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Amaru Gaming7c781.21$58 inLost-$58.2593546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Amaru Gaming14c775$106 inLost-$105.7562841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Amaru Gaming12c749.99$89 inLost-$88.7610933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Amaru Gaming14c702.13$100 inLost-$99.9830844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Amaru Gaming16c596.25$95 inLost-$95.454246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Amaru Gaming16c574.29$92 inLost-$91.891,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Amaru Gaming18c561.11$101 inLost-$10126843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Amaru Gaming16c371.53$58 inLost-$58.1158746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Amaru Gaming3c350$11 inLost-$10.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Amaru Gaming16c318.42$51 inLost-$50.952,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Amaru Gaming9c307.22$28 inLost-$27.541,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Amaru Gaming13c251.25$32 inLost-$32.41,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x590d…28f3backed Amaru Gaming15c250$38 inLost-$37.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Amaru Gaming14c226$32 inLost-$32.3256945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Amaru Gaming18c166.67$30 inLost-$3015940.9%65 W · 94 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Amaru Gaming11c120$13 inLost-$12.9678516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Amaru Gaming10c113.06$11 inLost-$11.3258943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Amaru Gaming17c110$19 inLost-$18.610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Amaru Gaming17c76$13 inLost-$12.9216839.9%67 W · 101 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.