Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x797c184587558b842daaac9b4d0c5b91230ad02da6acb8a09a3bf08c0ffb0a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCU Horned Frogsof TCU Horned Frogs, Cincinnati Bearcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,768 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 3,616$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.86 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 2,859$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 49c | 2,222$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.21 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 2,014$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.59 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed TCU Horned Frogs | 48c | 1,703$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.65 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 49c | 370$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed TCU Horned Frogs | 49c | 267.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed TCU Horned Frogs | 49c | 152.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 148.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 148.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…3dbebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 136.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 53c | 114.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed TCU Horned Frogs | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 89.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 88.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 84.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 46c | 62.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed TCU Horned Frogs | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 47c | 52.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 49.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 34.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed TCU Horned Frogs | 64c | 34.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed TCU Horned Frogs | 57c | 22.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…b137backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. TCU Horned FrogsTCU Horned Frogs won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-1.5)TCU Horned Frogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.