Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799d8d3f8147b0fcfa0ed7c1b79cc4f659a05fad24ac91b6808630c2a93c7386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NAVI Juniorof NAVI Junior, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,782 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x679d…6f07backed AVULUS | 20c | 449.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked AVULUS | 77c | 385.54$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.04 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed NAVI Junior | 29c | 164.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked NAVI Junior | 33c | 126.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked NAVI Junior | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked NAVI Junior | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed NAVI Junior | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked NAVI Junior | 30c | 96.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed NAVI Junior | 53c | 58.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed NAVI Junior | 29c | 50.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…6b8bbacked NAVI Junior | 50c | 50.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked NAVI Junior | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed AVULUS | 74c | 32.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed AVULUS | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed AVULUS | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Group AAVULUS won
- Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.