Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799fc212a0febf23ffc666feb0b713258e0b4743ca52182678231a059011e0bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 41c | 6,639$2,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.73 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 39c | 4,716$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,887.85 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 4,652$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.76 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 63c | 3,174$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.62 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 59c | 2,995$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.04 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 66c | 958.69$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.39 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 74c | 609.29$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 42c | 366.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.69 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 301$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.63 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 64c | 277.75$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 62c | 194.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 11c | 187$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 155.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 25c | 133.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 38c | 131.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 35c | 123.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 31c | 109.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 35c | 97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 36c | 62.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Yes | 32c | 56.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 65c | 55.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 64c | 50.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 216 | 44.4%96 W · 120 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…c78ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 55c | 36.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…570cbacked Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 49c | 30.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263e…9e3abacked No | 68c | 20.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd2…5e38backed No | 69c | 17.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will Rio Ave FC vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.