CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79bfdf5c9eff611f33decccd501e6a75a2340fcec56137a21c402ac3a9d9c74e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, Bebop
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x861f…a189backed ARCRED | 47c | 1,140$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.3 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed Bebop | 38c | 999.99$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.72 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Bebop | 40c | 907.05$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.03 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Bebop | 44c | 886.07$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.15 | 162 | 40.1%65 W · 97 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bebop | 59c | 847.46$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed ARCRED | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 463 | 45.6%211 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bebop | 54c | 572.54$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.88 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Bebop | 43c | 437.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed ARCRED | 57c | 376.81$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.03 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed ARCRED | 60c | 360.66$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed ARCRED | 49c | 315.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed ARCRED | 38c | 315$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 246 | 41.9%103 W · 143 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed ARCRED | 44c | 229.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d40…2230backed ARCRED | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed ARCRED | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed ARCRED | 56c | 178$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…42eabacked Bebop | 67c | 149.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked ARCRED | 43c | 138.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ARCRED | 54c | 135.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Bebop | 21c | 123.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…054ebacked ARCRED | 63c | 104.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ARCRED | 60c | 102.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Bebop | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 172 | 46.5%80 W · 92 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed ARCRED | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Bebop | 44c | 83.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…70debacked Bebop | 43c | 78.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked ARCRED | 60c | 76.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…37e3backed ARCRED | 78c | 74.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed ARCRED | 59c | 61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked Bebop | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed ARCRED | 63c | 52.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Bebop | 64c | 48.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Bebop | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54e…97bcbacked ARCRED | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked ARCRED | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 216 | 23.6%51 W · 165 L | -27.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…0d11backed ARCRED | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed ARCRED | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ARCRED | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed Bebop | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…ba17backed Bebop | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed ARCRED | 44c | 30.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e7…174fbacked Bebop | 39c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Bebop | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Bebop - Map 1 WinnerBebop won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Bebop - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.