Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Schoolkate vs. Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79ef774be26dace29ef8f57d00b9c5339727adec9317053b8b230bf03892d56c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Schoolkate, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked Schoolkate | 42c | 2,723$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.23 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Arnaldi | 65c | 1,564$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.37 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Arnaldi | 61c | 1,279$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.81 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Arnaldi | 62c | 1,122$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.72 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Arnaldi | 55c | 735.71$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.71 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Arnaldi | 59c | 590.15$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Arnaldi | 60c | 563.95$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.58 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Arnaldi | 67c | 522.5$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Schoolkate | 39c | 508.22$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.67 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Schoolkate | 38c | 259.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Schoolkate | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Schoolkate | 43c | 232.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Schoolkate | 48c | 216.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Schoolkate | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Schoolkate | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arnaldi | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Schoolkate | 42c | 129.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Schoolkate | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Arnaldi | 64c | 67.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arnaldi | 58c | 61.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Schoolkate | 41c | 55.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Schoolkate | 40c | 43.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Schoolkate | 41c | 39.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Arnaldi | 61c | 25.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.