Serie A · resolved market
Udinese Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a13e52b83bd890edf8446eaba0da5bcb5f996e8c9cd6904f23c0400ebe8830f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,409$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.06 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 863.65$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.46 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 30c | 730$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Over | 33c | 730$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Over | 51c | 358.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 61c | 350$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 44c | 226$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 41c | 219.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 52c | 186$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 59c | 102.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 70c | 100.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 39c | 93.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 32c | 62.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 45.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…de06backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Udinese Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Udinese Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.