Fifa International · resolved market
Will North Macedonia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1667b7ae40218369a6a19a250da0aba5dc116349df4341eeea3d87d49ba6ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 2,267$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.35 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 1,120$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.09 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 37c | 985.75$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 27c | 747.11$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 20c | 599.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.39 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 79c | 550$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 21c | 513.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.81 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 79c | 307$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.53 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c36dbacked Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 29c | 265.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.52 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 80c | 253.81$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 46c | 191.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 152.57$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 24c | 131.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…6748backed Yes | 77c | 45.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will North Macedonia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?this page
- Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-10-13?No won
- Will North Macedonia win on 2025-10-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.