Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a60b3a4807e63961cf1068d0c9bbc6a53dc996828aa680f55a43b7b3bc3eb60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 41c | 40,132$16,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,734.07 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 65c | 19,022$12,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,708.81 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 31c | 15,425$4,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,733.62 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 59c | 14,000$8,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 59c | 11,500$6,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,785 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 59c | 5,179$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.49 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 60c | 5,067$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,039.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 59c | 4,813$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 59c | 2,600$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 2,027$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 59c | 1,193$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.86 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…417dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,098$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 50c | 978$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.3 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 45c | 675.67$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Yes | 44c | 640$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 57c | 440$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 40c | 274.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Yes | 64c | 247.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 78.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 60c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?No won
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.