Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e59f2be00079f32d890b0d8822cca34affd694065f1b82f5d6bde503919970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 43c | 800$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 667.38$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 37c | 666$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.31 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 21c | 227.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 21c | 119.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 78.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…eb08backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…7a5bbacked No | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
- Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.