NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af31b68f6e771854e8246e44316f473c80ef5d3d1339961435c662c742a4c2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 51c | 20,864$10,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,223.19 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 19,111$9,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,364.6 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…bc0dbacked Over | 3c | 18,350$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…b8a4backed Under | 51c | 13,780$7,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,752.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…030bbacked Over | 49c | 13,780$6,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,752.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,810$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.55 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 47c | 724.72$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.1 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 37c | 450.53$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Under | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…8bc4backed Over | 49c | 209$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…b456backed Over | 50c | 209$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f37…b87ebacked Under | 51c | 198$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…3f80backed Under | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…0183backed Over | 49c | 194$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…64d5backed Under | 51c | 179$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…cefebacked Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 109$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 52c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…6bc3backed Over | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 52c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. DevilsDevils won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.