Tennis · resolved market
Cap Cana: Tomas Barrios vs Raphael Collignon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af9d239766b7fc803f4a753a7bf13325c6978cdb0dc8143280fb6bcf48f9d4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raphael Collignonof Tomas Barrios, Raphael Collignon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Tomas Barrios | 9c | 746.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 740$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.47 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Tomas Barrios | 24c | 680.65$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.36 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 494.03$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tomas Barrios | 17c | 358.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Tomas Barrios | 5c | 270.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tomas Barrios | 25c | 231.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Tomas Barrios | 24c | 218.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Tomas Barrios | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Tomas Barrios | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 664 | 52.3%347 W · 317 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Tomas Barrios | 10c | 162.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Tomas Barrios | 23c | 153.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 132.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Raphael Collignon | 77c | 129.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Tomas Barrios | 26c | 123.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Tomas Barrios | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Tomas Barrios | 23c | 78.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Tomas Barrios | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Tomas Barrios | 23c | 64.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Tomas Barrios | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Tomas Barrios | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 44.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Raphael Collignon | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed Raphael Collignon | 77c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Raphael Collignon | 76c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap Cana: Tomas Barrios vs Raphael Collignonthis page
- Barrios vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Barrios vs CollignonCollignon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.