Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0358c4c311c850b3a0f487726fefb4beab0dafb9ee8cc408204114d9a7bd89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Kopriva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Kopriva | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Cerundolo | 60c | 330$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Cerundolo | 64c | 330$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Kopriva | 40c | 320$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Cerundolo | 64c | 289.86$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Cerundolo | 62c | 234.72$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kopriva | 38c | 222.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Cerundolo | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Kopriva | 38c | 132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Cerundolo | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kopriva | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kopriva | 36c | 54.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Cerundolo | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…59c9backed Cerundolo | 62c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Cerundolo | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5)this page
- Argentina Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Vit KoprivaCerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs KoprivaCerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.