NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1833c15b428111cc5dee4048f16b6148440e7dbf7eee2bc506aed1dae17b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,970 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 51c | 10,609$5,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.66 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.99 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 5,194$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,659.38 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 51c | 3,898$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 2,925$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.8 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 2,628$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.48 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 51c | 2,120$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.01 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 1,030$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.9 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 52c | 1,006$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.13 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 49c | 974$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.74 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 52c | 924.79$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.89 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 833.97$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.89 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 449.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.57 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 51c | 411.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 48c | 288$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Over | 51c | 270$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 222.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 189.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 50c | 179$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 62c | 163$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 153.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 50c | 137.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 114.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 31c | 88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 54c | 73.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 53.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 42.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d51…7317backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Under | 50c | 27.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Under | 48c | 23.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…bba5backed Under | 61c | 23.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. FlamesSenators won
- Senators vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Flames: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.