Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b204464a2a39b3a963a027dbc82d86ea8fc8842c929cfe8a7dace71075cc4f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fc4…1f41backed Under | 57c | 5,291$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…06c4backed Over | 68c | 3,109$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Over | 70c | 1,430$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 10c | 1,390$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…c9c9backed Under | 76c | 776.32$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 541.04$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 31c | 505.36$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.86 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Over | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 38c | 274.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 38c | 160.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…fa07backed Under | 68c | 147.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 56c | 118.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 64c | 97.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 30c | 83.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…b131backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 66.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…333fbacked Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 44c | 49.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed Under | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 30c | 35.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.