Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x643dc3cbf53c4b2b8fa5185c84cea04948429724dc6e2ed3f71ca15acba2c3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 40c | 12,550$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc4…1f41backed Under | 40c | 8,817$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 60c | 8,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 79c | 2,195$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.41 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 26c | 1,885$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 1,772$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.34 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 61c | 1,398$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.36 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 34c | 883.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 60c | 740.65$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.26 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 52c | 593.06$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.77 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over | 60c | 460$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 60c | 423.82$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 61c | 370.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.49 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…0f6bbacked Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 25c | 299.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 57c | 293.48$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 38c | 236.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 214.35$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Over | 62c | 161.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 38c | 147.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 60c | 138.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 42c | 101.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 61c | 95.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 59c | 34.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 72c | 28.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…dff7backed Over | 57c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.