Asian League · resolved market
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b3a4b58383e47bb1f09eab425d894b8ae6680cdcd0d0cf14ccba939c1741c2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 1,428$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.49 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 64c | 1,124$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.97 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 796.5$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.87 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 74c | 756.11$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.11 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 68c | 613$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.19 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Under | 29c | 216$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 64c | 122.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 37c | 81.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…740cbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 60c | 58.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 35c | 55.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 34c | 53.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 43.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 39.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed Over | 64c | 37.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…c2bebacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Over | 68c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5this page
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 0.5Over won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Over won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Under won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.