MLB · resolved market
AL Wildcard: Astros vs. Tigers Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b77d62414f69d7fe22acbd9aff5c50610ac7a830768c604f75fc9bc5517fad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigersof Astros, Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Tigers | 36c | 12,479$4,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,985.84 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Astros | 64c | 11,996$7,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,677.44 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Astros | 64c | 4,534$2,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.48 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Tigers | 36c | 2,000$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.33 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Tigers | 39c | 1,025$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Tigers | 36c | 974.99$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Tigers | 35c | 577.69$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…6067backed Astros | 65c | 425.69$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ee6backed Tigers | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Astros | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Astros | 64c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Astros | 63c | 185.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Astros | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…2504backed Tigers | 36c | 148$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Tigers | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb45…bfcabacked Tigers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Tigers | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Tigers | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Astros | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Tigers | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…636abacked Astros | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Tigers | 51c | 26.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.