Mls · resolved market
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b98cddd0caa64cac1f5d9ff61233e6f6b7f44d324e617371ff98cc482c48d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 5c | 1,001$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 10c | 849.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 10c | 472.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 70c | 469.28$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 67c | 239$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Yes | 33c | 166.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 14c | 98.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 75.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 61.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 68c | 60.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 29c | 53.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Yes | 32c | 50.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 67c | 47.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Yes | 33c | 37.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 33c | 36.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 72c | 26.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.