Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8426733c4547d941fd2fd82bfcb13da718fd8612988f1b7c3cb27ff69bfbf8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 27c | 7,306$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.05 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 50c | 3,449$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 50c | 3,052$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.98 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 65c | 2,983$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.78 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…0167backed No | 47c | 2,895$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Yes | 66c | 2,657$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.71 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed No | 4c | 2,228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 77c | 1,916$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.84 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,711$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.86 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 27c | 1,593$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.1 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked No | 16c | 1,564$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 50c | 1,429$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.29 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 54c | 966.65$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.31 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 64c | 668.63$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked No | 21c | 463.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 441.21$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Yes | 80c | 328$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 79c | 293.89$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 15c | 234.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 18c | 210.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Yes | 74c | 203.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 34c | 178.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 64c | 166.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 11c | 165.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…9987backed No | 11c | 154.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 18c | 152.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 20c | 145.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 18c | 145$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 11c | 141.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f3…2d9dbacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 58c | 130.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed Yes | 71c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +9.3wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 21c | 94.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 56c | 88.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 56c | 62.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 61.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 43c | 57.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 64c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed No | 32c | 56.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 77c | 45.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 36c | 43.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…ed8bbacked Yes | 67c | 33.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 50c | 33.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked Yes | 44c | 32.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.