Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c3aa7c3332d38683bc557cdb8a990b7966b7aa41c6987cda75ee2b58ab532ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 0c | 6,772$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 2,585$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.57 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…7fd7backed Yes | 10c | 1,999$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 1,925$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 1,450$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…37ccbacked Yes | 26c | 1,404$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 15c | 1,070$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.13 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 699.99$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 26c | 662.3$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919f…bfbebacked Yes | 6c | 443$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…0dc3backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 68c | 372.16$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 61c | 256$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…0167backed Yes | 50c | 240.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 19c | 193.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 176.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 7c | 171.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 167.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 66c | 141.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 79c | 137.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…613ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 120.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 75c | 105.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Yes | 38c | 100.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 50c | 93.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…4475backed Yes | 50c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 50c | 52.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 25c | 52.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 30c | 34.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 52c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 59c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.