Tennis · resolved market
Yokkaichi: Sho Shimabukuro vs Naoya Honda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bc16fd50997302179cec14059e6584be1ed3f5f0a811a43c875281750937f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoya Hondaof Sho Shimabukuro, Naoya Honda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,741 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sho Shimabukuro | 29c | 4,404$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.08 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Naoya Honda | 53c | 2,669$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.59 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Naoya Honda | 31c | 2,142$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.96 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…f961backed Naoya Honda | 45c | 2,044$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.59 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Sho Shimabukuro | 47c | 1,759$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.6 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Naoya Honda | 70c | 1,441$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.58 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Naoya Honda | 48c | 1,170$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.91 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sho Shimabukuro | 63c | 1,036$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.66 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Naoya Honda | 19c | 908.88$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.68 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Sho Shimabukuro | 61c | 508.2$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 196 | 37.2%73 W · 123 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Naoya Honda | 40c | 379.53$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.72 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Sho Shimabukuro | 44c | 344$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Naoya Honda | 9c | 337$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.67 | 203 | 36%73 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Sho Shimabukuro | 47c | 320.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Sho Shimabukuro | 72c | 315.93$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.91 | 855 | 68.3%584 W · 271 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sho Shimabukuro | 43c | 295.23$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sho Shimabukuro | 40c | 248.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Sho Shimabukuro | 52c | 192.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 215 | 60.5%130 W · 85 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed Sho Shimabukuro | 60c | 172.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 407 | 48.9%199 W · 208 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Sho Shimabukuro | 75c | 145.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Sho Shimabukuro | 63c | 142.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…64f4backed Naoya Honda | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sho Shimabukuro | 51c | 129.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Naoya Honda | 45c | 128.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Naoya Honda | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Sho Shimabukuro | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Sho Shimabukuro | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Sho Shimabukuro | 43c | 83.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sho Shimabukuro | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Sho Shimabukuro | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -11.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Sho Shimabukuro | 65c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…768abacked Sho Shimabukuro | 53c | 56.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Naoya Honda | 29c | 55.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Sho Shimabukuro | 56c | 44.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 333 | 26.4%88 W · 245 L | -14.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Naoya Honda | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Sho Shimabukuro | 68c | 40.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Naoya Honda | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Naoya Honda | 41c | 33.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Naoya Honda | 34c | 31.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Naoya Honda | 47c | 31.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 451 | 47.2%213 W · 238 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Naoya Honda | 48c | 27.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Naoya Honda | 40c | 25.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…a23cbacked Sho Shimabukuro | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yokkaichi: Sho Shimabukuro vs Naoya Hondathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Shimabukuro vs HondaHonda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.