Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 138.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd86c052deb3a254b52d1c4104f9a8d886c8b5572c269434d235c86434825c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 51c | 24,565$12,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,036.7 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 5,747$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.35 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 49c | 3,969$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.37 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Under | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 2,139$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.71 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…0494backed Under | 49c | 1,521$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 52c | 1,127$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.46 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 48c | 1,048$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.88 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 46c | 980$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.8 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 49c | 342.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 52c | 237.89$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 48c | 139.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 122.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…d11ebacked Under | 48c | 87.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 48c | 49.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 138.5this page
- San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force FalconsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-21.5)San Diego State Aztecs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.