Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-21.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80dd65574435a22725da0ef69cb6e3b88d094bde0218e9a56051604ce270202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego State Aztecsof San Diego State Aztecs, Air Force Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 5,710$2,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,027.3 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Air Force Falcons | 53c | 5,027$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.03 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Air Force Falcons | 53c | 3,016$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.79 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 2,189$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.25 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego State Aztecs | 51c | 517$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.77 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Air Force Falcons | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Air Force Falcons | 49c | 164$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Air Force Falcons | 54c | 112.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…b908backed Air Force Falcons | 53c | 68.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Air Force Falcons | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Air Force Falcons | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-21.5)this page
- San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force FalconsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 138.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.