Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Nao Hibino vs Olga Danilovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bdb8b4f5acf02f44c1f960d85616788e288a55f5713cbbbd38c0dbb7a7fdf15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Danilovicof Hibino, Danilovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Hibino | 34c | 3,885$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.71 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Danilovic | 69c | 2,803$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Danilovic | 67c | 1,559$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.61 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…e7bebacked Hibino | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Danilovic | 47c | 321.93$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Danilovic | 40c | 249.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hibino | 23c | 215.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Hibino | 57c | 139$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Danilovic | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Hibino | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Hibino | 35c | 90.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hibino | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Danilovic | 68c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.