Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bf0c7a2cfd3f27e595fa1beb6eabbd33d73e22f582cbfd86b0ab0ee1c874406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 307.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 62c | 306.41$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 267.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 265.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 34c | 254.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 245.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 162$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 131.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 101.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 32c | 94.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 89.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 64c | 88.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 87.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 83.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 19c | 82.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 71.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 64c | 62.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 26c | 58.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 40c | 58.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 26c | 55.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 80c | 46.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 63c | 35.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 79c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…0400backed Yes | 34c | 30.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 69c | 27.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 69c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 66c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 61c | 21.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…2e6abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 68c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed No | 70c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.