South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c454d04c82d2b4aab7038e459edb810aecb6c3080b7f6ba2416a9765d54d2d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 12c | 1,737$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…5e13backed Under | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 39c | 893.88$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.38 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 782.73$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 15c | 449.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 420.08$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.65 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…361ebacked Over | 22c | 216.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 203.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.63 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 184.36$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 14c | 119.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…b9d4backed Under | 53c | 99.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 27c | 63.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 75c | 63.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Over | 27c | 45.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 45c | 42.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Under | 53c | 41.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Under | 78c | 38.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 37.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 36.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a9…f96dbacked Under | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 68cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 76c | 19.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.