South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf1d4d0bc05133a37a37246ab3dbdfd80820078a0b5a9086dc5be620698bf53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,285$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.63 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 1,074$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.94 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 55c | 887.6$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 47c | 824$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.72 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 44c | 690$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 633.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…1310backed Under | 54c | 497.3$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 477.16$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.96 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0988…f6f9backed Over | 46c | 387.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…9089backed Under | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 327.32$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.02 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 304.71$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.11 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 15c | 281.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 10c | 267.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 263.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.05 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 53c | 188.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 58c | 164.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 49c | 105.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 76c | 77.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…b9d4backed Under | 19c | 75.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 74.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 43c | 67.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 65.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…cddbbacked Under | 38c | 61.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 51c | 59.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 57.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 52c | 57.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 34c | 53.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Under | 57c | 52.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 48.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 53c | 44.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 52c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 65c | 28.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 79c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.