Tennis · resolved market
Merida Open Akron, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Katrina Scott
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ccfa9c03b88a19f863f46ff51079eb89c2d84234cfb5851238d6f5fabfaa5dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lepchenkoof Lepchenko, Scott
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Scott | 18c | 3,224$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.88 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Scott | 28c | 1,065$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.49 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Scott | 29c | 1,028$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.27 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…17c3backed Scott | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.32per pick | 13cpaid | +273.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…191bbacked Scott | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.46per pick | 16cpaid | +344.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed Scott | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.29per pick | 6cpaid | +304.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Scott | 38c | 411.46$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.67 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Lepchenko | 69c | 350.86$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Scott | 58c | 346.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Scott | 41c | 288$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Scott | 47c | 243.47$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Lepchenko | 66c | 238.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Scott | 38c | 200.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lepchenko | 43c | 190.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Lepchenko | 43c | 174.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Scott | 29c | 161.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Lepchenko | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lepchenko | 58c | 151.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…2b01backed Lepchenko | 73c | 150.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Scott | 21c | 149$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Scott | 36c | 144.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Lepchenko | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Lepchenko | 65c | 108.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Lepchenko | 52c | 88.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Scott | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Lepchenko | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Scott | 57c | 66.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Scott | 36c | 63.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Scott | 35c | 55.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Scott | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…630ebacked Scott | 51c | 30.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Lepchenko | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Lepchenko | 68c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Scott | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…2670backed Scott | 51c | 19.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe637…03d3backed Lepchenko | 67c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.