MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d00632df70f57f16aea5c74bf02f56f8b659aa687ac3e6356e4693d1e937037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.98 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,373$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.8 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,262$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.68 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 457$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 350.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 265.63$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 242.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 204.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 187.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 142.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 117.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 78.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 77.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 59.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b21…05ecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.