MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee71cea6884d94105da19d637f6dcc8665b711206d219b834167c51bc3ca9022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 53c | 166,076$87,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,207.46 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 54,229$25,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,503.12 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 25,793$12,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,669.62 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 22,626$10,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,884.27 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 16,777$7,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,892.06 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 48c | 12,000$5,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,240 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 10,129$4,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,267.27 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 49c | 9,154$4,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,672.4 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 47c | 7,623$3,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,040.19 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 2,491$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.11 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 49c | 857$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.07 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 745$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.85 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 688$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.76 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 49c | 489.8$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 48c | 382.3$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.22 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 324.76$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 48c | 229.47$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 47c | 213.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Under | 49c | 203.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 199.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 47c | 186$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 48c | 120.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 49c | 94.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 89.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 84.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 83.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Under | 48c | 83.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 52c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 61.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…a59fbacked Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 45.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…17eebacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.