South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d13eb44f68d602b6814a5b7f749846cf9ad7b4631812a2c34ea36a0cdb2401b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 19,933$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 50c | 5,461$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.75 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 2,456$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.17 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 39c | 1,403$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.93 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Yes | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked No | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 3c | 562.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 46c | 550$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…1feabacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…52e5backed Yes | 45c | 460$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f5…b1e3backed No | 55c | 460$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 60c | 429.49$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.06 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 4c | 331$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 319.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…2882backed Yes | 46c | 213.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 62c | 191.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…6a7fbacked Yes | 46c | 162.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 28c | 85.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…9ab4backed Yes | 72c | 78.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…2ba0backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked No | 55c | 37.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…3e50backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 72c | 28.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 60c | 28.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3c…b62abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15?this page
- Will Mirassol FC vs. SC Internacional end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Internacional win on 2025-10-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.