Champions League · resolved market
Raphinha: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3e858521effbff8585211ee9592b690d388d769d6efd225d4632b9966c399e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,087 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 54c | 519.21$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.07 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +7.7wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 48c | 184.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Yes | 48c | 74.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…22ebbacked No | 62c | 69.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d3fbbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…55e8backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 56c | 46.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b2…02fabacked Yes | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe244…cf6abacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed No | 58c | 22.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raphinha: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Fermín Lopez: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Juan Hernandez: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Lamine Yamal: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Robert Lewandowski: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.