NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d5cdcb5dd1004e7511deb923d2d9195e5540df89d6a292d01aa44b55616e692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Red Wings, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Sabres | 62c | 3,762$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.46 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Red Wings | 38c | 1,876$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.88 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Red Wings | 37c | 1,300$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 40c | 816$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.54 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc939…1d7cbacked Sabres | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…5ec1backed Red Wings | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Red Wings | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Sabres | 60c | 245$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sabres | 60c | 208.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Sabres | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Red Wings | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Sabres | 61c | 119$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Red Wings | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…7a06backed Sabres | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Red Wings | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. Red WingsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.