Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d83f7bea84d1a9da36735b3a6aea5cd6b95e1073471c5efd9a2259d5b1e994c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Duke Blue Devils, Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437c…f458backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 44c | 1,207$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 44c | 919.66$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.11 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 713.84$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.78 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 515$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Duke Blue Devils | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)this page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 157.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.