Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f1a42984e022052784e9ddcaec2999dd4c4d20b0629a148bef3966c6d90967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Arkansas Razorbacks, Duke Blue Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $282,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 22c | 219,353$48,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,745.01 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Duke Blue Devils | 78c | 210,695$163,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,063.22 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Duke Blue Devils | 80c | 6,965$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.05 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 3,156$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.42 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Duke Blue Devils | 62c | 1,500$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 13c | 1,304$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 1,222$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…fa14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 3c | 1,167$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 11c | 1,134$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 1,101$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 12c | 999.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 15c | 887.86$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 15c | 861$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 11c | 830$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 795.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Duke Blue Devils | 76c | 790$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.55 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 38c | 693.29$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…e5aabacked Duke Blue Devils | 71c | 691.9$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.65 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 12c | 690.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 15c | 673.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Duke Blue Devils | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…278cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 606.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Duke Blue Devils | 66c | 528.53$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…a599backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 24c | 527.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…59e7backed Duke Blue Devils | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 456$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 421.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 404.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 136 | 3.7%5 W · 131 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 15c | 386$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 17c | 365$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 15c | 353.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 32c | 315.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 22c | 286.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 19c | 249.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 29c | 245$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…e31dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 13c | 199.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…bd63backed Duke Blue Devils | 76c | 197.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…023abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 36c | 184.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 7c | 170.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 21c | 151.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…118ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…70a9backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2209…aa48backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…e4aabacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Duke Blue Devils | 71c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…01f2backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…04f6backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc11…918ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 14c | 92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…9b25backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b06…c870backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 34c | 61.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e58…3b81backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 24c | 59.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…58e2backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 43.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 63c | 33.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eff…8888backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 40c | 28.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Duke Blue Devils | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devilsthis page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.