NBA · resolved market
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Total Games O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da50418b5a7933a588590f1078865048a3443841f84e1cbf27a11cbeebcd9f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec2d…896cbacked Under 4.5 | 30c | 3,243$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.71 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over 4.5 | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Under 4.5 | 1c | 1,853$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over 4.5 | 68c | 1,589$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.27 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Under 4.5 | 35c | 549.14$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over 4.5 | 73c | 405.65$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…bfdfbacked Over 4.5 | 72c | 274.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under 4.5 | 5c | 274.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Under 4.5 | 25c | 185.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed Under 4.5 | 25c | 171.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Under 4.5 | 29c | 164.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…7cedbacked Over 4.5 | 66c | 147.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under 4.5 | 29c | 116.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under 4.5 | 31c | 100.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…af78backed Under 4.5 | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Over 4.5 | 72c | 67.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Under 4.5 | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under 4.5 | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under 4.5 | 29c | 47.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9749…ba1ebacked Over 4.5 | 73c | 46.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over 4.5 | 58c | 38.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…270ebacked Over 4.5 | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…648abacked Over 4.5 | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…4884backed Over 4.5 | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…755cbacked Over 4.5 | 71c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…b737backed Over 4.5 | 72c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…4bb8backed Over 4.5 | 76c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.