WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dad9378f31bafb86f257cf92a9ff2c2bce01b66dd85062a83fb2a80ed0d1888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Las Vegas Aces, Atlanta Dream
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 4,450$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.56 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 1,831$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.49 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 913.76$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.33 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Las Vegas Aces | 64c | 749.96$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 649.13$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.02 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 558.34$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.42 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Atlanta Dream | 46c | 501$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Dream | 41c | 450$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 446.67$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.78 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Atlanta Dream | 53c | 226$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 178.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Atlanta Dream | 37c | 172.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…9ed5backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 158.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Atlanta Dream | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Dream | 29c | 123$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 95.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Dream | 58c | 94.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Las Vegas Aces | 42c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Las Vegas Aces | 68c | 73.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 34c | 68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 57.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Atlanta Dream | 40c | 36.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Las Vegas Aces | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta DreamLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 171.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 172.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.