WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8594bc240b2c96b72fc98f4782f4278eb9129fd0020f0ce5bc0c70efe90b392d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Las Vegas Aces, Atlanta Dream
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72f8…8ea0backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 21,991$10,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,659.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 12,843$6,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,806.79 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 6,208$3,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,245.87 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 5,167$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634.99 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 4,419$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.5 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…eb1abacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 3,200$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 2,119$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.11 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 1,547$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.94 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 1,366$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.67 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…9ed5backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 1,207$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Las Vegas Aces | 68c | 1,080$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 1,006$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.94 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Dream | 46c | 632.86$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.12 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 603.18$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.62 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 603.18$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.62 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 588.23$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 539$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.89 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Atlanta Dream | 36c | 421.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.19 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 303.33$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 229.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Dream | 46c | 224$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 29c | 223.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 214.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 104.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 92.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 64.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Atlanta Dream | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 47.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 46.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…c430backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…b38ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 35.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 28.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 23.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta DreamLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 171.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 172.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.