Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df823d522273d8a639ea1dc67b2f49aa9a8093bcdb4982f52fee43c4bc9441b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rutgers Scarlet Knightsof Penn State Nittany Lions, Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 49c | 38,000$18,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,380.96 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 38,000$19,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,379.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 4,016$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 54c | 2,890$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.58 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 47c | 1,950$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 54c | 1,853$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 1,667$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.62 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 727$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.04 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.95 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 478.47$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.58 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 472.92$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.92 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 49c | 302.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.52 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…3499backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 172$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 49c | 138.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 47c | 117.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 49c | 93.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 47c | 73.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81da…421bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 48.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 54c | 46.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 48c | 46.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcde…dc58backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…252cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea95…e876backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e6…8f44backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…157cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 22.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5173backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…1d80backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda98…a6a9backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c2d3backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-4.5)this page
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Penn State Nittany LionsRutgers Scarlet Knights won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 148.5Over won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5)Rutgers Scarlet Knights won
- Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-5.5)Rutgers Scarlet Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.