College Football · resolved market
Spread: Marshall (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e0a15e4c79c423fd355a561dae5349273fd2b708f9d6cde6b5451e19b9ed8f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Appalachian Stateof Marshall, Appalachian State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf839…6154backed Appalachian State | 51c | 23,823$12,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,672.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…ec0ebacked Marshall | 49c | 23,717$11,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,621.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e44…295cbacked Marshall | 49c | 23,483$11,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,506.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…af23backed Appalachian State | 51c | 23,383$11,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,457.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Appalachian State | 52c | 79.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Marshall | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Marshall (-5.5)this page
- Marshall vs. Appalachian StateAppalachian State won
- Marshall vs. Appalachian State: O/U 56.5Under won
- Marshall vs. Appalachian State: O/U 57.5Under won
- O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Marshall (-3.5)Appalachian State won
- Spread: Marshall (-4.5)Appalachian State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.