College Football · resolved market
Marshall vs. Appalachian State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48e313b4d59d5d2ef01a2f6e89b0ff92f8e7921b01607f2a24bce51d6a91e641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Appalachian Stateof Marshall, Appalachian State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Marshall | 67c | 37,321$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Appalachian State | 33c | 35,945$11,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,082.99 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Marshall | 60c | 3,589$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.34 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Appalachian State | 35c | 3,294$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Marshall | 65c | 2,397$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.45 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Appalachian State | 35c | 1,799$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.47 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marshall | 32c | 1,435$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.7 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Appalachian State | 40c | 1,351$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.12 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Appalachian State | 25c | 1,311$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.52 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Appalachian State | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Appalachian State | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Appalachian State | 33c | 999.91$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.94 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Appalachian State | 36c | 975.73$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.47 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Appalachian State | 35c | 846$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.9 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Appalachian State | 34c | 800$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…b3cabacked Marshall | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Marshall | 71c | 732$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.29 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Appalachian State | 33c | 626.75$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.22 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Appalachian State | 34c | 549.37$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.59 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Appalachian State | 36c | 469$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.16 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Appalachian State | 33c | 458.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.22 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marshall | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Marshall | 71c | 392$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.32 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Marshall | 56c | 340$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Appalachian State | 45c | 309$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Marshall | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Appalachian State | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…cbeebacked Appalachian State | 44c | 268.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…2244backed Marshall | 63c | 257.14$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Marshall | 66c | 225$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Appalachian State | 37c | 222$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Appalachian State | 23c | 215$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…361fbacked Appalachian State | 16c | 213.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.47 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…6576backed Appalachian State | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Marshall | 62c | 190$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Marshall | 46c | 178.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Marshall | 50c | 163.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Appalachian State | 20c | 159.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.06 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Marshall | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Appalachian State | 20c | 133.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Marshall | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Appalachian State | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Marshall | 66c | 119.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Marshall | 64c | 103.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Marshall | 66c | 103.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Marshall | 75c | 101.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Marshall | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…5fe4backed Appalachian State | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Appalachian State | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…c360backed Marshall | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Marshall | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Appalachian State | 35c | 88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Marshall | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Appalachian State | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Marshall | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f95…cd47backed Appalachian State | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a858backed Marshall | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed Marshall | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Appalachian State | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Appalachian State | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Marshall | 65c | 38.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Appalachian State | 36c | 35.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…8c77backed Marshall | 76c | 35.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…8b02backed Marshall | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Marshall | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Marshall | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…e2dbbacked Marshall | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Marshall | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Appalachian State | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Appalachian State | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Marshall | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…8dc6backed Appalachian State | 37c | 27.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…0915backed Marshall | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…31c7backed Marshall | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Marshall | 67c | 20.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…c02abacked Marshall | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Marshall | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Marshall | 67c | 15.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marshall vs. Appalachian Statethis page
- Marshall vs. Appalachian State: O/U 56.5Under won
- Marshall vs. Appalachian State: O/U 57.5Under won
- O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Marshall (-3.5)Appalachian State won
- Spread: Marshall (-4.5)Appalachian State won
- Spread: Marshall (-5.5)Appalachian State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.