Stocks · resolved market
Ackman vs. S&P - January
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e24aca25f1da034b5afa9d481c86fd842334deef2024bb0003b4fa2ac761894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ackmanof Ackman, S&P
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed S&P | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Ackman | 79c | 3,811$2,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed S&P | 16c | 500.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked S&P | 21c | 416.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…fb4bbacked S&P | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked S&P | 6c | 223.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed S&P | 18c | 199.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed S&P | 21c | 185.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked S&P | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed S&P | 12c | 144.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed S&P | 18c | 101.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f4…2bd8backed S&P | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac4…a8c9backed S&P | 18c | 95.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ackman | 79c | 93.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…82bcbacked S&P | 22c | 92.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…df71backed S&P | 22c | 89.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Ackman | 80c | 70.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked S&P | 19c | 63.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed S&P | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…3055backed Ackman | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…c80cbacked S&P | 23c | 48.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacde…2685backed Ackman | 80c | 48.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed Ackman | 37c | 37.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed S&P | 52c | 31.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba3…b9a3backed Ackman | 80c | 27.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Ackman | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed S&P | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…fabfbacked Ackman | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…d65fbacked Ackman | 80c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…fe30backed Ackman | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.