Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Stuttgart and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e4756693553b83e507a17a6ee4665730898333afb205d18095cfa749bf6a887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked No | 62c | 4,570$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.68 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +46%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 41c | 1,337$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.51 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…9d39backed Yes | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 34c | 469.21$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 37c | 448.06$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 23c | 448.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 66c | 428$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 38c | 254.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 36c | 128.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 64c | 107$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 107$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes | 39c | 100.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 33c | 92.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…75e1backed No | 62c | 54.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 37c | 51.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 39c | 51.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…a224backed No | 63c | 37.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…d380backed Yes | 37c | 37.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…13c3backed Yes | 38c | 36.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…d2f0backed No | 62c | 36.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…1a8fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…265abacked Yes | 38c | 35.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…4b94backed No | 63c | 34.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e5…cdecbacked Yes | 37c | 34.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894f…7e07backed Yes | 37c | 33.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…e593backed No | 62c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…255abacked Yes | 38c | 32.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…aed2backed No | 62c | 30.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd00d…d5a6backed Yes | 39c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f7…76bfbacked No | 62c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa674…9df1backed No | 64c | 21.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f6…a1c9backed No | 62c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…4e7dbacked No | 62c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…8ef1backed No | 62c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…6a46backed No | 63c | 20.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…e770backed No | 63c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Stuttgart and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?this page
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart?Yes won
- Will Stuttgart beat Paris Saint-Germain?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.