College Football · resolved market
Spread: UNLV (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e4abbe8618dc72cd2ec022eab13de8c4a0f9f40f7c6f26d8dfd76bed3ac4bbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexicoof UNLV, New Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked New Mexico | 52c | 20,266$10,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,730.1 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UNLV | 48c | 13,096$6,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,286.15 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked UNLV | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UNLV | 47c | 3,803$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.86 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New Mexico | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed UNLV | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed New Mexico | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked New Mexico | 51c | 785$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.65 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked New Mexico | 51c | 635$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.15 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5478backed New Mexico | 51c | 330$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed New Mexico | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked New Mexico | 51c | 206.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed UNLV | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed New Mexico | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked New Mexico | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed New Mexico | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked New Mexico | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed New Mexico | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed New Mexico | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked UNLV | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UNLV (-4.5)this page
- New Mexico vs. UNLVNew Mexico won
- New Mexico vs. UNLV: O/U 61.5Over won
- O/U 62.5Over won
- Spread: UNLV (-3.5)New Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.