Olympics · resolved market
Will Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e6a6a998c0fed0cc60a3756f783f8e165815540b243ce1ef55948e65319ef21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5230…58f5backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked Yes | 1c | 10,667$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…857abacked Yes | 57c | 6,465$3,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,693.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 41c | 5,019$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,971.26 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 45c | 2,907$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…9db4backed Yes | 59c | 2,000$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked Yes | 58c | 1,097$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 42c | 875.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 43c | 749.96$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.48 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Yes | 54c | 499.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 54c | 259.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.71 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 45c | 238.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Yes | 56c | 199.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked No | 44c | 164$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Yes | 58c | 125$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…62aabacked No | 44c | 124.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…ec72backed Yes | 57c | 122.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed Yes | 56c | 101$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…7ad5backed Yes | 57c | 88.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…fdc4backed Yes | 53c | 86.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 54c | 58.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…bf52backed Yes | 56c | 43.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…fbd0backed Yes | 60c | 40.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac2…112cbacked No | 46c | 40.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…d337backed No | 46c | 39.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4adf…6f59backed Yes | 56c | 37.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…c772backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…6f32backed Yes | 60c | 36.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…daf0backed Yes | 58c | 29.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…615bbacked Yes | 64c | 26.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…a7b2backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…1953backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…9c04backed Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…cfcdbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle?this page
- Will Marrit Steenbergen (NED) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle?No won
- Will Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle?Yes won
- Will Shayna Jack (AUS) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle?No won
- Will Siobhan Haughey (HKG) win Gold in Women's 100m Freestyle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.