Fifa International · resolved market
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eacfba01742b276a78a34198f52a80c053c9e5f2afb09c6d95392a6a87273cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 7c | 31,878$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.09 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 10c | 16,504$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.43 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 11c | 13,587$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.61 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,532$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 10c | 5,858$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.02 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 9c | 5,137$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.3 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 11c | 4,519$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.04 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 11c | 3,418$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.81 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 11c | 3,100$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 10c | 2,673$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 11c | 2,294$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 11c | 908.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 10c | 799.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…3c1dbacked No | 11c | 681.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 10c | 676.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 11c | 599.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 10c | 599.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…b88dbacked No | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed No | 8c | 454.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 6c | 376.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed No | 12c | 366.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 11c | 300.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2e76backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 9c | 244.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 10c | 191$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…f0bbbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 16c | 105.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12?this page
- Will Finland win on 2025-10-12?No won
- Will Netherlands vs. Finland end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.